It is these patterns that, above all, help explain why the Conservative seat tally is expected to be so low.
It appears the Conservatives have suffered heavily in places where more than a third of households have a mortgage – a reflection perhaps of the damage caused by former prime minister Liz Truss’s “fiscal event".
It looks as though Reform UK may win more seats than many polls suggested. This is largely because the Conservative vote has fallen far in seats they previously held, but also because Reform have advanced most in seats where more voted Leave in 2016. This is especially the case in seats being defended by the Conservatives.
Reform are also inevitably advancing more strongly in seats that the Conservatives won in 2017 - where the Brexit Party did not stand in 2019.
However, how many seats Reform will win is highly uncertain.
Our model suggests there are many places where they have a chance - but a relatively low one - of winning.
Meanwhile, Labour’s vote is up more in seats where a large part of the population say they are in bad health - a measure of relative deprivation - and in places where more voted Leave in 2016. The party also seems to be advancing strongly in Scotland but less well in Wales, where they have held power in the Senedd since 2021.
While the Lib Dems are doing relatively well in seats where they start second to the Tories, conversely their vote has been squeezed somewhat in places where the Conservatives were facing a challenge from Labour.
They also appear to be doing better in places with a relatively high Leave vote, which was one of Ed Davey’s objectives.
The Greens are performing particularly well in places where the population is relatively young. Their success in these places may help to explain why Labour’s share of the vote nationally might be less than 40%. The Greens may still only pick up two or three seats, despite recording their highest-ever general election vote share because of its even distribution across the country.
In Scotland, it appears the SNP have suffered a more substantial reverse than was anticipated by most polls. Though the decline in the party’s support appears to be lower in places where a high proportion of identify as Scottish rather than British.
The exit poll only has a small number of sampling points in Scotland. If the poll has even slightly overestimated Labour’s advantage over the SNP, the latter’s tally could end up being higher.
The forecast for the SNP - and for Scotland in general, where the exit poll is pointing to substantial Labour gains - must thus be treated with a great deal of caution.
It is a triumphant night for Labour at both Welsh and UK levels, as the party returns to government.
According to the exit poll, Labour are on track to overtake the SNP as Scotland's biggest party.
Jeremy Corbyn has beaten Labour in Islington North by 8,000 votes.
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