Is it really all over for the Tories as the opposition drops in the polls for the first time since 2022?
: Phil Noble/WPA Pool/Getty
Labour’s vote share has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years ahead of the general election, new polling shows.
Support for the party dropped by four percentage points in the space of a week following Sir Keir Starmer’s final head-to-head debate with Rishi Sunak and increased scrutiny of his policies.
A poll of 2,092 adults by Savanta for The Telegraph, conducted between Wednesday and Thursday, saw the polling firm record its lowest Labour support since January 2022 as the gap between Sir Keir’s party and the Conservatives closed to 17 percentage points.
But despite a vote share of 38 per cent, compared to the Tories’ 21 per cent and Reform’s 14 per cent, seat modeller Electoral Calculus predicts Labour is on course for a majority of more than 260 seats if the current figures are replicated on polling day on Thursday.
Such a scenario would leave Labour with 459 seats, the Conservatives 75 and the Liberal Democrats 70.
Big beasts lose seats
Reform would gain five seats, giving it a total of six, while in Scotland the SNP would be reduced to a rump of 14 MPs.
This scenario suggests Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, Liz Truss, Mr Sunak’s predecessor, and Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons who has been touted as a future Tory leader, would all lose their seats.
The public was evenly split on whether Sir Keir or Mr Sunak won Wednesday’s BBC debate, in which the Prime Minister warned voters not to “surrender” their finances and national security to Labour.
During the head-to-head, Sir Keir failed nine times to answer what he would do about 90,000 asylum seekers stuck in limbo in the UK, while Mr Sunak gave his most bullish performance to date.
The best we’ve got
An audience member drew the loudest applause of the night by asking both men whether they were “really the best we’ve got”.
Chris Hopkins, the director of political research at Savanta, said: “This is our lowest Labour vote share since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, and the Conservatives for their part do appear to have slowed or stopped their downward spiral.
“However, that’s where the good news ends for the Prime Minister, as if this vote share was replicated on polling day, Labour would still likely have a majority of over 200.
“The increase in vote share for the Greens and independent candidates is notable. Not because it will have an impact on this election in any significant way, but could point towards trouble for the Labour Party in government and over the coming years.”
: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Labour voters deserted the party in their droves for the Green Party or pro-Palestinian candidates at last month’s local elections, in a foretaste of the difficulties that Sir Keir may face if he enters government at the end of this week.
The polling also found voters expect NHS waiting times and housing to improve under a Labour government.
Waiting times are expected to get better by 45 per cent of Britons while 27 per cent think they will get worse, while 43 per cent anticipate the housing crisis to ease and 25 per cent think it will worsen.
End of Tory rule
However, the public is more split on whether Labour would make the economy better or worse (40 per cent versus 38 per cent), as well as life in general (34 per cent versus 30 per cent) and crime (32 per cent versus 33 per cent).
Mr Sunak is highly likely to lose power on Thursday, bringing 14 years of Tory rule to an end.
But the public is split on who should succeed him and, when presented with a list of seven potential future leaders, a quarter (26 per cent) said they did not know while 20 per cent said “none of these”.
Most popular among all voters was Nigel Farage, who currently leads Reform UK but has refused to rule out a return to the Conservative Party at some point in the future. This may factor in Labour voters who believe Mr Farage is more beatable than Miss Mordaunt, as suggested by recent head-to-head YouGov surveys.
: David Rose, for The Telegraph
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