The populist revolt will only grow, so long as the old parties don’t take popular concerns seriously
‘The Conservatives must govern from the centre”. It’s becoming a mantra and one you will be hearing an awful lot more of in the coming weeks.
Strictly speaking, they won’t be governing from anywhere in a few days time, but expect the battle for the future shape of Tory opposition to grow even fiercer after Thursday. Former Conservative minister and Rest is Politics co-host Rory Stewart warned that Tories shouldn’t try to appeal to the “populist Right” if Labour forms the next government.
“You have to retake the centre”, he insists. Given he has stated he may well vote for the Green Party, a coalition of Just Stop Oil zealots and anti-Zionists who are about as “central” in their politics as Ho Chi Minh, we might safely ignore the Old Etonian’s pleas for moderation. But Stewart is not the only voice in what is soon to be the Wilderness. He is backed by fellow ex-Tory David Gauke, soon-to-be ex-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and about every voice in the centre-Right commentariat who is about to find they have an ex-address book.
This rush for the centre isn’t only a Tory phenomenon. Sir Keir has parked his tanks in what he considers to be the middle of British politics. The received dogma in Labour seems to be that Blairism warmed up with a dash of Green sauce is enough to salvage British democracy. Our future environment secretary Ed Miliband (gulp!) believes that “progressive international leadership” on climate change holds the answer to tackling populism. Good luck with that.
Stewart is certainly right that many small and large-C conservatives have been alienated by Nigel Farage’s remarks on Russia, and by the cranks and racists evidently admitted into the Reform ranks without proper vetting. Governing within the window where most voters are is not a bad idea electorally at all. But there is one, gaping problem: the centre-ground is not where these people imagine it is.
Perhaps the policy that demonstrates this most clearly is the issue of immigration. Farage has been criticised for making this the “immigration election” since in polling, immigration ranks as the third most important election issue overall (behind cost-of-living and the NHS).
Crucially, it is the single most important issue cited by 2019 Tory voters and Tory-Reform switchers. Such analyses ignore how migration exacerbates other concerns, like housing. A recent Centre for Policy Studies report found that we need to build at least 515,000 homes in England each year just to meet current demand. To misquote Clinton adviser James Carville, “it’s migration, stupid!”
Where centrist Tories certainly have a point is that much of the blame lies with Boris Johnson, under whose “points-based” system net migration reached unprecedented highs; such that one in every 30 people currently in Britain arrived in the past two years.
Rishi Sunak has belatedly tried to undo such Boris-era excesses; limiting the dependents migrants can bring over and tightening student visas. But to the extent that there has been a Tory U-turn, it owes much to fear of Farage.
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